Gold Holds Above $4,100 as Fed Cut Odds Stay Elevated After Sharp Rally

Expectations for a December rate reduction remain firm, with Senate action to reopen the government poised to restore key economic data releases.

Overview

December gold settled down 0.18% at $4,116.3 on Tuesday after two sessions of strong gains, consolidating above the $4,100 level.
CME-tracked probabilities put the chance of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve cut in December at roughly two thirds, near 67%.
On Monday, gold jumped about 2.8% to $4,122.0 and silver surged roughly 4.5% to $50.311 as traders repriced U.S. easing odds.
The U.S. Senate approved a federal funding bill and the measure now moves to the House, with a potential end to the shutdown seen as key to resuming official data that could influence policy expectations.
Analysts cited profit-taking and technical resistance for Tuesday’s pullback, while highlighting gold’s appeal when rates fall and noting strong silver demand, pockets of scarcity, and speculative position rebuilding.