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Gold Hits New Record Near $3,600 After Weak U.S. Jobs Report

Goldman Sachs warns of a tail‑risk path to $5,000 if confidence in Federal Reserve independence deteriorates.

Overview

  • Spot prices rose to roughly $3,586–$3,596 an ounce on Friday and are set for the best weekly gain in nearly four months as bullion extended this year’s rally.
  • Weak U.S. payrolls and higher jobless claims strengthened expectations of a September Federal Reserve rate cut, boosting the appeal of non‑yielding gold by lowering real‑yield assumptions.
  • Structural demand remains firm, with central banks continuing heavy net purchases and gold‑backed ETFs taking in 397 tons in the first half, lifting total holdings to about 3,616 tons, according to the World Gold Council.
  • Political pressure on the Fed has intensified safe‑haven interest, with reporting of efforts by President Donald Trump to remove or investigate top officials including Jerome Powell and Lisa Cook and a Justice Department probe of Cook.
  • Goldman Sachs told clients that reallocating about 1% of privately held U.S. Treasuries into bullion could push prices near $5,000, characterizing it as a tail‑risk scenario rather than a base case.