Overview

• A divided U.S. appeals court ruled most of President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs illegal but let them stay in place until Oct. 14 as the administration prepares a Supreme Court appeal.
• Global equities fell, with the S&P 500 down roughly 1.2%–1.3% on Tuesday, as legal and policy uncertainty fed a broad risk-off move.
• European 30-year government bond yields hit multi-year highs — France near 4.5%, Germany about 3.4%, and UK at the highest since 1998 — while the U.S. 30-year approached 5%.
• Gold climbed to fresh records above $3,500 an ounce as investors sought havens, even as the dollar firmed and oil edged higher on supply concerns.
• Fed funds futures implied roughly 89% odds of a 25 bp cut this month, with Friday’s U.S. jobs report in focus, as concern about central bank independence simmered after Trump sought to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook.