Overview

• Spot gold set a fresh peak above $4,060 after an eighth straight weekly advance, while silver held over $50 after spiking toward $51 on a short squeeze centered in London.
• Renewed US–China trade tensions, including the president’s proposed additional 100% tariffs and Beijing’s warning of retaliation, alongside the Fed’s pivot to rate cuts, have reinforced safe-haven demand.
• Market tightness deepened as one-month London silver lease rates jumped to about 11% and heavy shipments to the US drained inventories, flipping typical London–New York relationships with premiums of up to $2.50 per ounce over Comex.
• Silver ETFs drew large 2025 inflows — roughly 95 million ounces in the first half — and analysts say stretched positioning is keeping price swings elevated.
• Bullish projections have escalated, with Yardeni Research forecasting $5,000 by 2026 and a potential path to $10,000 by 2028 if momentum persists, while investors await US inflation data and remarks from Jerome Powell on Tuesday.