Overview

• Spot prices climbed to roughly $3,802–$3,815 per ounce on Monday, extending year-to-date gains to about 43–45% and marking gold’s strongest year since 1979.
• Market focus has shifted to the threat of a US government shutdown that could delay the September payrolls report, complicating Fed visibility even as traders price a high likelihood of rate cuts in October and December.
• The dollar index eased to around 97.95, improving affordability for overseas buyers, while holdings in SPDR Gold Trust rose to 1,005.72 tonnes, the highest since 2022.
• Institutional demand remains robust, with Bank of America citing $5.6bn in inflows last week and $17.6bn over the past four weeks, as major banks project prices could approach $4,000.
• Central-bank accumulation and global spillovers are evident, with 415 tonnes added in H1 and India’s MCX futures setting new highs near Rs 1,15,900 per 10 grams as silver also hits multi-year peaks.