Overview
- U.S. gold futures for December delivery traded above $4,000 on Tuesday, marking a first-ever breach, while spot hovered near $3,980.
- Prices have climbed about 50% this year as investors sought safety during the U.S. government shutdown, a weaker dollar and rising odds of Federal Reserve cuts by October and December.
- Persistent central-bank and ETF demand tightened supply, with China’s central bank buying for an 11th straight month and global gold ETFs recording their strongest first-half inflows since 2020.
- India saw rapid pass-through to local markets, with Delhi spot prices around Rs 1,30,300 per 10 grams and fresh records on MCX futures.
- Forecasts moved higher—Goldman raised its outlook to $4,900 by December 2026—while cautions grew, with Bank of America flagging overbought conditions and the risk of a consolidation or correction.