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Gold Hits $4,000 an Ounce for the First Time

A vacuum of official data during the U.S. shutdown sharpened rate-cut expectations, funneling money into bullion.

Overview

  • U.S. gold futures for December delivery traded above $4,000 on Tuesday, marking a first-ever breach, while spot hovered near $3,980.
  • Prices have climbed about 50% this year as investors sought safety during the U.S. government shutdown, a weaker dollar and rising odds of Federal Reserve cuts by October and December.
  • Persistent central-bank and ETF demand tightened supply, with China’s central bank buying for an 11th straight month and global gold ETFs recording their strongest first-half inflows since 2020.
  • India saw rapid pass-through to local markets, with Delhi spot prices around Rs 1,30,300 per 10 grams and fresh records on MCX futures.
  • Forecasts moved higher—Goldman raised its outlook to $4,900 by December 2026—while cautions grew, with Bank of America flagging overbought conditions and the risk of a consolidation or correction.