Overview

• New York futures traded above $4,000 for the first time, while spot prices hovered near $3,970–$3,977 before paring gains.
• Gold is up roughly 50% this year as traders price two quarter‑point cuts by the Fed by December, according to CME FedWatch.
• Official‑sector demand remains strong, with central banks buying over 800 tonnes in the first half and China adding reserves for an 11th month.
• Safe‑haven flows have intensified during the U.S. government shutdown and political strains in France and Japan, alongside a weaker dollar.
• Silver climbed to about $48.5 per ounce, its highest since 2011, with a projected structural deficit, while banks raised gold targets such as Goldman Sachs’ $4,900 call.