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Gold Extends Rally to a Fourth Month as Fed Cut Odds Surge, Silver Nears Record

Thin holiday trading alongside a CME outage amplified moves as traders eye fresh catalysts.

Overview

  • Gold futures settled near $4,240 per ounce, closing a fourth straight monthly gain and moving back within range of October’s $4,336 record after a roughly 60% rise this year.
  • Markets are pricing an 80%–87% chance of a 25 basis point Federal Reserve cut in December after dovish remarks and softer data, boosting non‑yielding bullion as the dollar eases.
  • Silver outperformed, touching about $56.5 an ounce and approaching an all‑time high, with London supply tightness and strong ETF and industrial demand cited for the surge.
  • In India, 24‑carat prices hovered around Rs 1.26–1.30 lakh per 10 grams with IBJA data showing a weekly rise, as wedding‑season buying supports demand and the RBI policy meeting looms.
  • Major banks lifted medium‑term targets, with Goldman Sachs pointing to $4,900 by end‑2026 and UBS at $4,500 by mid‑2026, while other forecasts suggest potential moves toward $5,000.