Overview
- Markets priced roughly a 92% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike for the meeting this week, a jump from about 59% a week earlier, and U.S. 10‑year yields climbed above 5%, which lowered gold to roughly $4,270–$4,310 per ounce.
- The Saudi east–west pipeline was shut after Houthi attacks on Sept. 14–15 and is expected to remain offline for three to five weeks, a disruption that traders say could remove between about 2.6 million and 4 million barrels per day from key export flows.
- Rising oil pushed headline inflation expectations higher, which led investors to favor yield‑bearing assets and a stronger dollar, reducing appetite for non‑yielding gold and triggering the recent selloff.
- Domestic prices tracked the international slide: Pakistan 24K gold fell to about Rs449,336 per tola after consecutive daily drops, silver in Pakistan eased to roughly Rs6,802 per tola, and India quoted 24K retail at about Rs15,408 per gram on Sept. 15.
- Analysts say the decisive factor now is Fed communication at the policy meeting because a tone that signals continued tightening could push gold lower, while a more cautious tone could allow a rebound and limit inflation‑driven pass‑through to consumers.