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Gold Climbs to High $4,100s as Markets Price In December Fed Cut

An 80% probability of a December cut is reinforcing the rally, with central‑bank buying providing support.

Overview

  • Spot prices traded between roughly $4,166 and $4,193 per ounce, with Comex December futures near $4,193 as the dollar eased from recent highs.
  • CME FedWatch showed about an 80% chance of a 25 bp cut next month after weak US data, including just 0.2% September retail‑sales growth and a larger‑than‑forecast drop in core producer inflation.
  • India’s domestic market tracked the upswing, with the All India Sarafa Association putting Delhi prices near a two‑week high of Rs 1,30,100 per 10 grams, while MCX gold and silver futures also gained.
  • Pakistan’s 24‑karat gold was reported at Rs 436,562 per tola, then rose by Rs 2,300 to Rs 438,862 in subsequent trade, reflecting the global move in local pricing.
  • Major banks turned more bullish on next year, with Deutsche Bank lifting its 2026 average forecast to $4,450/oz and Goldman Sachs projecting $4,900/oz by end‑2026, as silver advanced to about $52/oz.