Overview

• Spot gold rose 0.4% to $3,900.40 at 00:27 GMT after touching a record intraday high of $3,919.59, with December futures near $3,926.80.
• Markets are pricing 25-basis-point reductions in October and December, with CME FedWatch showing probabilities near 95% and 83% respectively.
• A senior White House official warned of mass federal furloughs if shutdown talks fail, and Fed official Stephen Miran advocated a sharp path of rate cuts.
• In the UAE, retail prices posted a seventh straight weekly increase totaling 66.25 dirhams per gram, spurring bullion selling and damping new jewellery purchases.
• Gold is up about 49% year to date after a 27% gain in 2024, supported by central-bank buying, ETF demand, a weaker dollar and hedging, with India seeing festival buying as China’s markets were closed for holidays.