Overview

• U.S. gold futures briefly hit about $4,015 on Tuesday before easing, leaving prices up roughly 50% year to date for the strongest calendar-year gain since 1979.
• Investors are leaning into bullion as expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate cuts grow, the dollar weakens, and the U.S. government shutdown delays key economic data.
• A World Gold Council report shows gold-backed ETFs posted their largest quarterly inflows on record through September as trading volumes jumped and prices notched repeated highs.
• Central banks continued to add to reserves, with China reporting an eleventh straight monthly increase in September, contributing to tighter physical supply.
• Major banks raised forecasts—Goldman Sachs now targets $4,900 by December 2026—while notes from firms including Bank of America warn the rapid surge risks a near-term consolidation or correction.