Overview

• The metal topped the $4,000 mark for the first time, with December futures hitting $4,014 and year‑to‑date gains of roughly 50%–53%.
• World Gold Council data show $13.6 billion of net inflows into gold‑backed ETFs over the past four weeks and more than $60 billion this year, lifting holdings above 3,800 tonnes near pandemic‑era peaks.
• Analysts highlight continued buying by reserve managers, particularly in emerging markets diversifying away from the dollar, as a structural tailwind.
• Demand has been bolstered by political and economic uncertainty, including a U.S. government shutdown and European strains that have pressured major currencies and pushed investors toward safe havens.
• Forecasts have been raised, with UBS targeting $4,200 by year‑end and Goldman Sachs projecting $4,900 within a year, though a hawkish Federal Reserve turn or a shutdown resolution could trigger a pullback.