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Gold and Silver Rebound to Start 2026 as Rebalancing Risk Looms

Attention turns to an index rebalancing that could force large futures sales.

Overview

  • Gold rose as much as about 1.9% and silver up to roughly 4% on Friday before easing during U.S. hours, extending gains after their strongest year since 1979.
  • Bloomberg and TD Securities warn the Bloomberg Commodities Index reset could force sales of more than $5 billion in silver futures and roughly $6 billion in gold next week, with thin liquidity heightening volatility.
  • Late-December turbulence followed CME margin hikes that drove a roughly 10% slide in silver futures, highlighting market-structure fragility after record runs.
  • China’s new curbs on silver exports took effect on January 1, a move traders say may tighten physical supply and influence near-term pricing.
  • Local markets mirrored the swings: Indian prices firmed on MCX and in retail hubs, while Pakistan’s per‑tola gold rebounded by Rs 5,700 after a prior drop tied to global moves.