Gold and Silver Pull Back After August Rally as Fed Rate Odds Rise

Markets sold some bullion because Fed commentary lifted the chance of a September rate increase and raised yields that make non‑yielding metals less attractive.

Overview

After strong gains in August, spot gold traded around $4,429 per ounce and silver near $67–$68 per ounce on Monday, August 31, following a late‑month correction.
Comments by Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole forum pushed market odds of a September rate increase to roughly 60–66 percent, which raised real yields and helped trigger profit‑taking in both metals.
Monarch PMS published quantified bull/base/bear scenarios that assign a 25% chance to a bull outcome (gold $5,000–$5,600 and silver $95–$120), a 55% base case and a 20% bear case, illustrating wide possible year‑end paths.
Countervailing forces supporting prices include the US Treasury’s stepped‑up long‑bond buybacks that lowered yields, sustained central bank bullion purchases and structural silver tightness driven by stronger industrial use and repeated annual deficits.
The near term now hinges on US jobs and inflation data and the Fed’s September decision, which could amplify volatility for savers and investors and influence key trading levels tracked by market participants.