Overview
- Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana presents the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement at 14:00, setting a three-year fiscal framework and updated forecasts.
- Economists expect no major immediate tax changes, with attention on bracket adjustments and the status of medical tax credits as NHI funding debates continue.
- The Reserve Bank has shifted de facto to the bottom of the 3%–6% range, and Treasury is expected to indicate support for a 3% anchor even if a formal decision comes later.
- Revenue has surprised on the upside as SARS collections rise and precious‑metal prices surge, with Nedbank forecasting a roughly R60 billion overshoot that could ease borrowing needs.
- Growth remains weak near 1.2%, keeping debt risks in focus despite tailwinds from lower inflation, improved SOE performance and South Africa’s removal from the FATF greylist.