Overview
- Published in Nature Climate Change, the ETH Zurich–led study models more than 200,000 glaciers and projects annual disappearances rising from roughly 1,000 today to about 2,000–4,000 by mid-century depending on warming.
- Under a 1.5°C pathway, losses peak near 2,000 per year around 2041; a 2.7°C track brings roughly 3,000 per year from about 2040 to 2060; a 4°C scenario reaches around 4,000 per year near 2055.
- The Alps are among the most vulnerable, with over half of small glaciers expected to vanish by the 2030s–2040s and, under 2.7°C, only about 110 projected to remain in the central Alps by 2100.
- Researchers emphasize the extinction-like nature of these losses for communities, economy and culture, and estimate that ambitious mitigation could preserve roughly 100,000 glaciers by the end of the century.
- Regional timing varies, with larger high-latitude systems such as Alaska and Svalbard declining later, and separate reports highlight seismic activity linked to basal changes at West Antarctica’s Thwaites Glacier with long-term sea-level implications.