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Global Study Warns Cancer Deaths Could Reach 18.5 Million Annually by 2050

Researchers attribute the projected increase primarily to demographic change.

Overview

  • New estimates for 2023 put global cancer at about 18.5 million new cases and 10.4 million deaths, with uncertainty ranges of 16.4–20.7 million cases and 9.6–10.9 million deaths.
  • Since 1990, annual cancer deaths have risen 74% and new cases have more than doubled; breast cancer was most frequently diagnosed in 2023, while trachea, bronchus and lung cancers caused the most deaths.
  • Under a no‑action scenario, annual cases could rise about 61% to 30.5 million and deaths nearly 75% to 18.5 million by 2050, with 2050 ranges of 22.9–38.9 million cases and 15.6–21.5 million deaths.
  • Roughly 41.7% of 2023 cancer deaths are linked to modifiable risks such as tobacco use, poor diet, alcohol consumption and high blood sugar.
  • The Lancet analysis covers 204 countries and 47 cancer types, finds the greatest burden in low- and middle-income countries, urges investment in prevention, screening and treatment, and notes data gaps and unmodeled effects from COVID-19 and recent conflicts.