Overview
- An ETH Zurich–led analysis in Nature Climate Change mapped 211,490 glaciers using satellite data to estimate the disappearance year for each glacier.
- The study introduces a modeled “peak of glacier extinction” around 2041, with roughly 2,000 glaciers projected to vanish in that year even under a 1.5°C pathway.
- Under a ~2.7°C trajectory, about 3,000 glaciers could be lost annually between 2040 and 2060, rising to as many as 4,000 per year by the mid‑2050s in a 4°C scenario.
- Projected survivors by 2100 vary sharply by warming level: about 95,957 at 1.5°C, roughly 43,852 at ~2.7°C, and near 18,288 at 4°C.
- Recent observations underscore the trend, with glaciers losing an estimated 450 gigatonnes of water in 2024, while smaller‑glacier regions such as the Alps and subtropical Andes are expected to peak earlier than Greenland and Antarctica’s fringes; researchers are also analyzing ancient ice cores in the Pamir to probe why some glaciers show relative resilience.