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Global Study Finds Predator Pressure Decides When Camouflage or Warning Colors Work

A worldwide field test using 15,018 baited paper moths across 21 forests pinpoints local predator competition as the main predictor of survival.

Overview

  • Published in Science on September 25, the experiment standardized trials across six continents using mealworm-baited models tracked for eight days.
  • No single defense prevailed everywhere, with the relative success of camouflage and warning coloration shifting with local ecological conditions.
  • Predator competition emerged as the strongest driver, with warning signals performing better where predator pressure was lower.
  • Warning coloration proved more reliable across sites—especially typical orange–black patterns—while camouflage was highly context-dependent and faltered in low light.
  • Researchers note that habitat changes such as logging that alter light regimes and community composition could reshape which defenses succeed, warranting further study.