Overview

• The BMJ Global Health analysis, led by the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, models long-term burden rather than relying solely on outbreak reports.
• India is projected to have about 5.1 million people at long-term risk annually, with Brazil and Indonesia next; India and Brazil together account for roughly 48% of the total burden.
• The chronic phase is estimated to comprise 54% of overall impact, with evidence suggesting about half of patients may face lasting joint pain or disability and higher burden in ages 40–60.
• Researchers warn risk extends beyond subtropical and tropical regions as Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus expand their range.
• With no specific antiviral treatment, two preventive vaccines are approved in some countries, and the shared model is intended to guide vaccine targeting for children under 10 and adults 80 and older.