Overview

• July U.S. consumer price index rose 0.2% month-over-month and 2.7% year-over-year, with core CPI up 0.3% m/m and 3.1% y/y, all in line with forecasts
• Traders boosted the CME FedWatch odds for a September Federal Reserve rate cut to about 94%, driving the 2-year Treasury yield down roughly 4 basis points to 3.73% while the 10-year yield remained largely unchanged
• Global equity benchmarks including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached record highs as investors rotated into small-caps and cyclicals, lifting chip stocks such as AMD and Nvidia
• President Trump signed an executive order extending the U.S.-China tariff truce by 90 days through Nov. 10; Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urged a 50-basis-point rate cut; and a Truth Social post targeting Fed Chair Jerome Powell stoked political risk
• Attention now turns to July’s Producer Price Index, weekly jobless claims and Friday’s U.S.-Russia summit in Alaska as potential catalysts that could reshape market expectations