Overview

• USDA projects 82 million tonnes of soybean meal exports in 2025/26, marking a third consecutive annual record
• FOB meal prices have tumbled from about $550 to $300 per ton since late 2023 as crushing surges in the US and Brazil
• Chicago soybean futures plunged to near‐year lows around $353 per ton following a large US harvest and lower Chinese purchases
• Argentina’s domestic soybean prices hit ARS 395,000 per ton after permanent export-tax cuts spurred accelerated farmer sales and left exporters with tight inventories
• Market analysts warn China’s current milling pace may slow by early 2026, risking localized soybean meal shortages despite global oversupply