Overview

• Political shocks from Sébastien Lecornu’s resignation in France and Sanae Takaichi’s rise to lead Japan’s ruling party drove the dollar higher and lifted long-term sovereign yields.
• The DXY rose about 0.42% to 98.14 by early afternoon as the euro and yen weakened, with the dollar near ¥150.05 and US 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields near 4.158% and 4.755%.
• Investors trimmed bets on near-term Bank of Japan tightening after Takaichi’s win, pressuring the yen and sending long-dated Japanese government bond yields sharply higher.
• In Brazil, domestic risk premia eased intraday as Belo Horizonte’s rejection of zero bus fares and a Lula–Trump videoconference helped the real strengthen and pulled long-dated DI rates off recent highs, with the dollar at roughly R$5.3185 and DI Jan-2029/2031 yields lower.
• Market focus turns to FOMC minutes expected this week, Brazil’s IPCA on Thursday, and a US Senate vote on a stopgap funding bill as the shutdown extends into a second week.