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Global Report Finds First Climate Tipping Point: Coral Reefs in Widespread Dieback

The assessment sets a 1.2C thermal limit for reef survival, urging faster action before COP30.

Overview

  • The University of Exeter–led Global Tipping Points Report concludes warm‑water reefs have entered self‑sustaining dieback after unprecedented bleaching affecting about 80–84% of reefs since 2023, threatening livelihoods of hundreds of millions.
  • Scientists place the median tipping threshold near 1.2C of warming, with current global temperatures around 1.3–1.4C and a likely overshoot of 1.5C within the next decade under existing policies.
  • Beyond reefs, the report warns that the Amazon rainforest, the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, and Atlantic ocean circulation (AMOC) are approaching critical thresholds with escalating systemic risks.
  • Authors call for rapid cuts to greenhouse gases and short‑lived pollutants such as methane and black carbon, accelerated carbon removal, protection of climate refugia, and governance reforms ahead of COP30 in Brazil.
  • Some experts highlight regional variability and emerging coral resilience even as the report notes 'positive tipping points' in clean energy, with renewables surpassing coal in electricity generation and rapid growth in EVs and solar.