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Global Rate Signals Turn Cautious: Fed Set to Hold, BOJ Eyes April Option, ECB Warns on U.S. Shocks

Officials emphasize data dependence, with yen weakness alongside political crosscurrents shaping expectations.

People walk around the Financial District near the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., December 29, 2023. REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz
A Japanese flag flutters atop the Bank of Japan headquarters in Tokyo, Japan  December19, 2025. REUTERS/Manami Yamada/File Photo
Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman arrives to testify before the House Financial Services Committee on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., U.S., December 2, 2025.  REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst
Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson speaks at a conference of the National Association for Business Economics in Dallas, Texas, U.S., October 9, 2023. REUTERS/Ann Saphir

Overview

  • U.S. Fed officials, including Mary Daly and Anna Paulson, indicate comfort with holding the policy rate at 3.50%-3.75% at the Jan. 27-28 meeting after last year’s 75 bps in cuts.
  • Vice Chair Michelle Bowman said the Fed should be ready to cut again if labor conditions deteriorate, calling the job market fragile and cautioning against signaling a pause in easing prematurely.
  • The Fed’s Beige Book reported activity increased in most districts with hiring largely unchanged and prices rising at a moderate pace, suggesting a cautious policy stance remains appropriate.
  • A Reuters poll points to a BOJ hold in January and March with a likely July hike, yet four sources say an April move is possible as yen depreciation risks broadening price pressures; the yen strengthened after Japan’s finance minister reiterated intervention remains an option.
  • ECB chief economist Philip Lane said there is no near-term rate debate if the baseline holds, warning that a U.S. policy deviation or dollar-related shocks could spill over to euro-area financial conditions.