Overview

• The war in Ukraine is expected to persist until the West realizes that a return to the previous world order is unattainable.
• Iran, with parliamentary elections scheduled for March, is likely to face another challenge to its legitimacy amid a devastated economy and refusal to cooperate with the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency over its nuclear program.
• In Afghanistan, the Taliban's continued restrictions on women signal a bleak future, with a rise in domestic violence and mental health crises among women.
• Belarus, pulled closer into Moscow’s orbit by Russia’s war in Ukraine, is unlikely to increase its involvement in the conflict or be subsumed into Russia.
• In Central Asia, despite widening their diplomatic horizons, countries may still be influenced by Russia, particularly in energy supply.