Global Predictions for 2024: Persistent Conflict, Political Challenges, and Human Rights Concerns

From the ongoing war in Ukraine to the tightening grip of the Taliban in Afghanistan, the world faces a year of prolonged conflicts, political legitimacy tests, and worsening human rights situations.

Ongoing conflict in Ukraine is expected to persist into 2024, with neither side achieving a decisive victory. The war's conclusion is contingent on the depletion of resources on one side, with Ukraine relying on continued Western support and Russia on oil and gas revenues.
In Iran, the government is likely to face another challenge to its legitimacy with parliamentary elections scheduled for March. The country is also grappling with a devastated economy due to international sanctions over its controversial nuclear program.
Belarus is unlikely to increase its involvement in the conflict in Ukraine or be absorbed by Russia, despite being pulled closer into Moscow’s orbit. The country's trajectory will largely depend on the outcome of Russia’s assault on Ukraine.
In the European Union, a rightward shift is expected in 2024, but it is unlikely to result in a surge of populist victories. The EU's support for Ukraine and its stance towards Hungary will be key issues.
In the Caucasus, the possibility of a formal resolution to the decades-long conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan could transform the region. However, Azerbaijan may not see it in its interests to make peace.
Hungary will take over the Council of the European Union's six-month rotating presidency in July, which could make progress difficult on issues that Prime Minister Viktor Orban opposes, such as the start of EU accession talks with Ukraine.
In Central Asia, Russia's influence may increase if it feels it is making headway on the battlefield in Ukraine. However, the region's countries have been widening their diplomatic horizons, with leaders holding talks with U.S. and German leaders and France making multibillion-dollar investments.
In Afghanistan, the Taliban's control over the country continues to tighten, signaling a bleak future for women in 2024 and beyond. The group's restrictions on women's rights and role in society are expected to continue, leading to a rise in domestic violence and female suicides.

RFE/RL