Overview
- Friday's industry reports from IDC and Omdia show 2026 third‑quarter shipments dropped about 20–21% year‑over‑year to roughly 58–63 million units.
- Analysts say the immediate cause was a pull‑forward of purchases in early 2026 where vendors and retailers stocked up to hedge rising memory costs, leaving channels with excess inventory in Q3.
- Omdia estimates that DRAM and NAND now account for nearly 40% of a PC's bill of materials, a jump from roughly 15% in normal periods that has pushed retail prices higher and squeezed margins.
- Vendor performance diverged in Q3 with IDC reporting Lenovo down 22.6%, HP down 30.9%, Dell down 25.0% and Apple down 11.3%, while suppliers and ODMs have begun cutting production.
- Omdia forecasts the weakness will continue with about a 24% drop in shipments in Q4 2026 and a further 7% decline in 2027 as channels work through inventory and demand remains subdued.