Overview
- Major banks estimate the market moved back into surplus in September and widened in October, with JPMorgan putting the excess at about 1.1 million barrels per day in September and 1.4 million bpd in October.
- Middle Eastern seaborne crude exports have largely recovered from spring lows, rising toward roughly 20.7 million bpd while Gulf crude and condensate shipments averaged about 14 million bpd, or near 80–86% of pre-war levels.
- U.S. refiners have shifted output away from gasoline toward diesel and jet fuel, with EIA data showing gasoline yields below 45% from January through August and jet fuel yields at or above 12% since March.
- Refined products remain tight: Gulf product exports are only about half of normal volumes and U.S. diesel stocks have fallen to multi-decade lows, leaving middle-distillate markets vulnerable into winter.
- Financial markets have pared much of the Iran-war risk premium after the U.S. midterm elections, which forced sharp price falls, but repeated tanker attacks, higher freight and insurance costs and shipping disruptions keep price volatility and upside risk in place.