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Global Model Estimates 14.4 Million Chikungunya Infections Yearly, India Hardest Hit

Researchers warn chronic joint disease drives the burden, prompting calls for targeted vaccination.

Overview

  • The BMJ Global Health study led by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine projects about 5.1 million infections annually in India, with Brazil next and Indonesia third.
  • India and Brazil together account for roughly 48% of the global long‑term impact on individuals and health systems.
  • The chronic phase is estimated to comprise 54% of overall burden, with prolonged joint pain common and mortality concentrated in children under 10 and adults over 80.
  • Researchers combined infection records with environmental and demographic risk factors and say surveillance‑only counts likely understate true risk, with the model shared for real‑time public health use.
  • With no antiviral treatments and only two preventive vaccines approved in some countries, including the United States, experts emphasize targeted vaccination, stronger surveillance and vector control as risk extends beyond traditional tropical zones and officials track infections in new areas.