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2w ago

Global Merchandise Trade Rises 5.3% in Q1 Before U.S. Tariff Hikes

Economists forecast a mild 0.2% contraction for 2025, citing stocked inventories undercutting demand alongside rising U.S. tariffs.

A drone view shows containers at the terminals at the port in Kwai Chung in Hong Kong, China, April 3, 2025. REUTERS/Tyrone Siu/File Photo
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Overview

  • The WTO reported that merchandise trade volumes climbed 3.6% quarter-on-quarter and 5.3% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025.
  • North America led import growth with a 13.4% quarterly surge as companies front-loaded shipments ahead of planned U.S. tariff increases.
  • The Middle East recorded the fastest export growth at 6.3% quarter-on-quarter, followed by Asia at 5.6%.
  • Office and telecom equipment volumes rose 16% year-on-year, chemicals grew 12% and clothing climbed 7%, whereas automotive products fell 4% and fuels, mining products and iron and steel each declined 3%.
  • WTO economists project a 0.2% decline in trade volumes for 2025 due to fully stocked inventories and looming U.S. tariff hikes.