Overview
- China’s official manufacturing PMI slipped below the 50 growth threshold to 49.3, signaling a return to factory contraction while the non-manufacturing and composite indexes also fell to 49.7.
- A private, export‑tilted RatingDog/S&P Global PMI for China held in expansion at 52.0, showing faster output but weaker export prices as firms cut charges to win business.
- The sequence of releases, with the official NBS reading released on Saturday and the private survey published on Monday, underlines how survey method and timing can produce contrasting views of the same month.
- Other major economies were mixed: India and Germany reported solid expansion (India PMI 54.7, Germany 54.2), Japan’s growth slowed but stayed positive at 53.3, and France and Australia returned to or stayed in contraction.
- Rising input costs and delivery delays reported across surveys, partly linked to Middle East shipping risks, raise the odds of goods inflation and force policymakers to balance weaker growth against persistent price pressures.