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Global Manufacturing Diverges as China Private PMI Expands and India Surges

Private surveys marked China's factories returning to growth despite official data remaining in contraction, reflecting persistent deflation against a backdrop of tariff uncertainty.

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A general view shows West Kowloon Cultural District and skyline buildings during sunset in Hong Kong, China October 28, 2022. REUTERS/Tyrone Siu/File Photo
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FILE - Shipping containers are seen ready for transport at the Guangzhou Port in the Nansha district in southern China's Guangdong province, April 17, 2025. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan, File)

Overview

  • China’s official manufacturing PMI fell to 49.7 in June, its third straight month below the growth mark.
  • The Caixin/S&P Global PMI rose to 50.4, signaling a private-sector rebound that contrasts with official figures.
  • In May, consumer prices declined 0.1%, producer prices posted their largest annual drop since July 2023, and industrial profits plunged 9.1%, underscoring deflationary strain.
  • India’s HSBC manufacturing PMI surged to 58.4 in June, its highest in 14 months, even as May industrial output growth slowed to 1.2%.
  • Regional readings were mixed, with Japan’s PMI reaching 50.1, the eurozone nearing expansion at 49.5, and South Korea’s PMI remaining in contraction at 48.7 under tariff uncertainty.