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Global Inflation Diverges as Singapore Cools, Australia Heats Up, Fed Core Stays Elevated

Rebate expiries lifted Australia’s gauge and nudged markets toward an RBA hold as Singapore’s trend softened to multi‑year lows.

A shopper walks past fruit on sale at a fruit and vegetable market in Sydney, Australia, June 20, 2017. Picture taken June 20, 2017. REUTERS/David Gray/File Photo
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Overview

  • Singapore’s core inflation slowed to 0.3% year over year in August, the lowest since February 2021, with headline CPI at 0.5%, as services, electricity and accommodation costs eased.
  • MAS and MTI kept their 2025 averages for core and overall inflation at 0.5% to 1.5%, citing moderate imported pressures and subsidies that temper services prices.
  • Australia’s monthly CPI rose to 3.0% year over year in August, the fastest in a year, even as the monthly index was flat; the trimmed mean eased to 2.6% and an alternative core excluding volatile items and holiday travel rose to 3.4%.
  • The ABS said higher measured electricity inflation reflected the expiry of large state and federal rebates in Queensland, Western Australia and Tasmania, which lifted out‑of‑pocket costs compared with a year earlier.
  • Traders largely ruled out an RBA cut at the September 29–30 meeting and trimmed November easing odds to about 60%, while U.S. surveys pointed to August PCE at roughly 2.7% and core near 2.9% after a unanimous Fed rate cut.