Overview

• President Trump’s tariff regime imposes a 10% baseline duty on imports and 25% on steel, aluminum, and cars, prompting retaliatory measures and global trade disruptions.
• UK GDP growth for 2025 is now forecast at 0.8%, down from 1%, with 2026 projections cut to 0.9%, as per EY Item Club’s latest report.
• The IMF downgraded global growth expectations to 2.7% for 2025, with Mexico’s GDP forecast slashed to just 0.2% due to tariff-related shocks.
• Business sentiment has plummeted, with 92% of economists in a Reuters poll describing the impact of tariffs as negative and 60% warning of high recession risks.
• Port data reveal a sharp decline in shipments, with arrivals at the Port of Los Angeles down nearly a third year-on-year, signaling severe supply chain disruptions.