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Global Grain Glut Deepens as Argentina Lifts Corn Forecast to Record 62 Mt and U.S. Harvest Drives Prices Lower

A stronger U.S. and Argentine supply outlook is driving down maize benchmarks, tightening profitability for Mexico’s farmers.

Overview

  • Corn futures fell about 8% after the latest USDA report confirmed a record U.S. crop, sliding from roughly $4.46 to $4.10 per bushel.
  • Argentina’s Rosario Board raised its corn production estimate to about 62 million tonnes, a record that implies roughly 41 million tonnes of exports worth about $8.4 billion.
  • Argentina is also closing a standout wheat season near 27.7 million tonnes with large exportable surpluses and competitive pricing despite mixed quality in some areas.
  • ASAGIR says Argentina’s sunflower complex grew export value by 46.8% in 2025 and is poised to gain market share as northern-hemisphere output declines, supporting firmer oil prices.
  • Mexico set a new high for 2025 corn imports at 24.59 million tonnes, and GCMA warns that abundant supply, unsold stocks in key regions and a strong peso are compressing producer margins.