Overview

• The Nature Medicine study drew on genetic data from over five million people to develop a polygenic risk score that outperforms previous predictors by roughly twofold.
• Validation across international cohorts showed the tool can reliably forecast adult obesity risk before kindergarten, opening doors for early lifestyle and nutritional interventions.
• Higher-risk individuals lost more weight in intensive programs but were also more prone to regain it, indicating a need for sustained, tailored support.
• Prediction accuracy peaked at around 17.6% of BMI variation in European-ancestry groups and fell markedly in African-ancestry populations, revealing equity gaps.
• Researchers aim to expand and diversify genetic datasets and refine ancestry-specific models to improve fairness and integrate genetic risk into preventive health strategies.