Overview
- The Global Carbon Project projects fossil-fuel CO2 will drop about 0.4% in 2026 to roughly 38.2 billion tonnes, with oil down about 1.9%, gas down 0.3%, and coal up about 0.6%.
- Authors say high oil prices and supply disruption from the Iran war reduced oil use this year and helped push the small decline in fossil emissions.
- Solar, wind and electric vehicles already meet about two thirds of growing energy demand and are avoiding substantial emissions, but their current pace is not enough to guarantee a sustained fall.
- Total CO2 including land-use changes is set to rise to about 43.3 billion tonnes in 2026 because peat fires and forest degradation linked to a strong El Niño have weakened natural carbon sinks.
- The report cautions the remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C is about 150 billion tonnes of CO2, which would be used up in less than four years at current rates, so faster clean-energy rollout and land protection are needed to lock in a decline.