Overview
- The Global Carbon Project’s 2026 Global Carbon Budget estimates fossil‑fuel CO2 will drop about 0.4% in 2026 to roughly 38.2 billion tonnes, driven mainly by lower oil use.
- Researchers attribute the oil decline to supply disruptions and higher crude prices tied to the Iran war and restricted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, which cut global oil consumption.
- Fuel trends were uneven: oil emissions fall ~1.9%, natural gas falls ~0.3%, and coal emissions rise ~0.6%, while land‑use CO2 from peat fires and deforestation grows and pushes total CO2 to about 43.3 billion tonnes.
- Authors say expanding wind, solar and electric vehicles already offset a large share of new energy demand—roughly 63–79% of additional emissions through 2028 if current rates continue—but warn one year of decline is insufficient proof of a lasting peak.
- The report, presented at COP31, notes the remaining 1.5°C carbon budget is about 150 billion tonnes—less than four years at current rates—and cautions that CO2 sinks are weakened by a strong El Niño, raising the risk of a rebound when energy markets stabilize.