Overview
- The Global Carbon Project estimates fossil-fuel CO2 will total about 38.2 billion tonnes in 2026, a 0.4% decline from 2025.
- The report, presented Tuesday at COP31 in Antalya, attributes the drop mainly to faster deployment of solar and wind and to reduced oil use after disruptions tied to the Iran/Strait of Hormuz crisis.
- Sector patterns were mixed: oil-related emissions fell about 1.9% while coal emissions rose roughly 0.6%, producing offsetting effects on the overall total.
- Country changes were uneven with modest falls in China (−0.9%), the United States (−1.3%), the EU (−1.5%) and Japan (−1.0%), while India’s emissions climbed about 4.4%.
- Scientists warn a single-year fall can reverse, note the remaining 1.5°C carbon budget equals only a few years at current rates, and call for faster rollout of solar, wind, batteries and electric vehicles to lock in a durable decline.