Overview

• Official 2024 figures put total fertility at 1.41 in England and Wales and 1.25 in Scotland, both the lowest on record.
• Pew’s review of UN and OECD data shows declines in every region since 1950, with Latin America down to about 1.8 and Africa to roughly 4.0 births per woman.
• China’s total fertility rate is around 1.0, and other advanced economies remain well below the 2.1 replacement level despite subsidies, leave benefits and child allowances.
• Nobel laureate Claudia Goldin told the Fed’s Jackson Hole conference that men’s reliable participation in parenting and enduring marriage norms help explain low fertility, especially in parts of East Asia.
• Scholars and officials highlight structural fixes such as more secure jobs, affordable childcare and housing, plus immigration and technology, as key to managing aging societies and fiscal strains.