Particle.news
Download on the App Store

Global EV Market Splinters: China Tightens Grip as Price War Deepens, U.S. Demand Slumps After Credit Expiry

Analysts warn of a 2026 shakeout in China’s crowded EV sector.

Overview

  • China’s NEV share hit 59.4% of new car sales in November, with BYD and Tesla reporting year-to-date declines and the top 10 manufacturers now controlling about 95% of the market.
  • UBS expects China’s EV price war to persist for years as Beijing restores purchase taxes and scales back trade‑in subsidies, with sales growth projected to roughly halve from 2025 levels.
  • Chinese automakers are accelerating overseas expansion, with Geely’s exports quadrupling in the first half of 2025 and BYD preparing to ramp production at a new Hungary plant in 2026.
  • U.S. EV sales dropped 46% from Q3 and 37% year over year in Q4, reducing market share to 5.7% after the $7,500 federal credit ended and emissions rules were rolled back.
  • Reports indicate as many as 50 smaller Chinese EV brands could downsize or shut in 2026, even as Europe faces price pressure and new lower‑cost models are queued for launch.