Overview

• The global economy faces numerous risks in 2024, including escalating tensions in the Middle East that could disrupt oil flows and push inflation higher.
• The Federal Reserve could face challenges if an escalating Middle East conflict hits oil prices and shipping lanes, or from looser financial conditions.
• Europe's aggressive tightening cycles could lead to a deep recession, with Germany particularly at risk due to a slowdown in China and the rise of Chinese electric-car makers.
• China's growth is heading south, with the post-pandemic recovery fizzling and stimulus measures failing to fill the hole left by a slumping property sector.
• Elections in Taiwan and the US could have significant global implications, with potential escalations in tensions and policy reversals.