Global Economy Faces 40% Loss by 2100 Under 4°C Warming, New Study Warns

Groundbreaking research reveals previous economic models underestimated the cascading global impacts of extreme weather on supply chains, urging immediate climate action to limit warming to 1.7°C.

A new study from UNSW projects a 40% reduction in global GDP by 2100 if temperatures rise by 4°C, a sharp increase from earlier estimates of 11%.
The research identifies cascading global supply chain disruptions caused by extreme weather events as a key driver of economic losses.
Previous economic models underestimated climate risks by focusing only on local impacts, ignoring global interdependencies and simultaneous weather shocks.
No country is immune to the economic effects of climate change, with even colder regions like Russia and Canada vulnerable due to global trade dependencies.
The study supports limiting warming to 1.7°C, aligning with the Paris Agreement's most ambitious targets to mitigate catastrophic economic and social consequences.