Overview

• Each 1.8°F rise above preindustrial levels could strip 120 calories per person per day from global food supplies, a 4.4% drop in average consumption
• Under a high-emissions trajectory, maize yields in the US, Eastern China, Central Asia and other breadbaskets may decline by as much as 40% by 2100
• Wealthy regions face average staple yield losses of 41% by century’s end while low-income areas confront declines around 28%
• Of six major staples studied, only rice appears likely to avoid substantial losses as temperatures climb
• Shifts in crop varieties and planting schedules will not fully offset climate-driven declines, leaving the poorest farming communities most exposed