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Global CO₂ Budget for 1.5°C Threshold to Run Out in Three Years

Last year marked the first time global temperatures topped 1.5°C above preindustrial levels, underscoring the speed of warming

Overview

  • Scientists estimate only 130 billion tons of CO₂ remain before the 1.5°C threshold is breached.
  • At current emissions of roughly 42–43 billion tons per year, that budget will be exhausted in about three years.
  • The global average temperature in 2024 reached 1.52°C above preindustrial levels for the first time.
  • Atmospheric CO₂ concentrations hit 423–429 ppm—a peak not seen in two million years—and sea levels rose 26 mm between 2019 and 2024, more than twice the 20th-century rate.
  • Experts warn that the 1.5°C target remains achievable in theory only if global emissions are slashed rapidly in the coming years.