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Overview
- The report projects fossil-fuel CO2 will rise 1.1% in 2025 to 38.1 billion tonnes, with increases across coal, oil and gas.
- It estimates roughly 170 billion tonnes of CO2 remain for the 1.5°C target, a budget that could be exhausted before 2030 at today’s emissions.
- Authors conclude that renewable deployment and decarbonization progress are not yet offsetting global energy demand growth.
- National trends are uneven, with projected increases in the United States (+1.9%), India (+1.4%), China (+0.4%) and the European Union (+0.4%) and a decline in Japan (−2.2%), while experts say it is too soon to declare a peak in China.
- Land-use emissions dipped with reduced deforestation and fewer fires in South America after El Niño, yet weakening land and ocean sinks mean some tropical forests are now net sources of CO2.