Overview
- Emissions from all major fossil fuels increased in 2025, with coal up 0.8%, oil up 1.0% and gas up 1.3%.
- The report estimates national changes of roughly +1.9% for the United States, +1.4% for India and about +0.4% for both China and the European Union.
- Analysts note uncertainty around China’s 2025 trajectory, as the Global Carbon Project reports a small rise while Carbon Brief’s separate analysis points to stagnation or a slight decline, with leap-year effects contributing to differences.
- Natural sinks absorbed less carbon, with terrestrial uptake down about 25% since 2015 and ocean uptake down about 7.9%, helping push atmospheric CO2 toward an estimated 425.7 ppm this year.
- Progress persists in pockets as 35 countries cut emissions while growing their economies and Amazon deforestation fell to its lowest level since 2014, yet these gains remain too small to reverse the global increase.