Overview

• The Lancet’s Global Burden of Disease analysis projects a 61% rise in new cases from 2024 to 2050 and nearly a 75% jump in annual deaths, reaching 30.5 million cases and 18.6 million deaths.
• Despite the surge in absolute numbers, global age-standardized incidence and mortality are not forecast to increase, reflecting demographic change rather than worsening overall risk.
• In 2023 there were 18.5 million new cases and 10.4 million deaths, with age-standardized cancer death rates down 24% since 1990, a decline driven largely by higher-income countries as rates worsened in many poorer settings.
• More than half of future new cases and two-thirds of deaths are expected in low- and middle-income countries, prompting authors to urge investment in prevention, early diagnosis, treatment access and cancer surveillance.
• An estimated 42% of current cancer deaths are linked to 44 modifiable risks, led by tobacco at 21% globally, while unsafe sex is the top risk in low-income countries at 12.5%, though authors note important data gaps and uncounted factors.